* Euro rises to 2-mth high, near key retracement at $1.3576
* Improving confidence in euro zone boosts currency
* Spain has plans for savings banks, Portugal vulnerable
(Releads, adds quotes, detail, previous TOKYO)
By Neal Armstrong
LONDON, Jan 21 (Reuters) - The euro rose to a two-month high
versus the dollar on Friday, helped by Asian demand and
improving confidence in the euro zone, but its rally was on
shaky ground as it approached key technical resistance.
Successful bond sales from highly indebted countries,
including Portugal and Spain, and expectations of a strengthened
euro zone rescue fund were lending the euro support, together
with a more hawkish outlook from the European Central Bank but
debt problems were still in the background.
"This reaction seems overdone as it's highly unlikely the
ECB will raise rates soon and there's been nothing concrete on
the rescue fund," said Raghav Subbarao, currency strategist at
Barclays Capital.
"We think Portugal will have to be bailed out eventually.
After that the euro can rise further as Spain we believe is
solvent, but the euro rally is not sustainable here," he added.
Spain is planning to force its regional savings banks to
become conventional banks and seek stock market listings, a
source familiar with the matter told Reuters, [ID:nLDE70K0A4]
The debt-laden savings banks and a possibly expensive rescue
are seen as major risks for Spain's government as it
aggressively cuts its budget deficit.
The single currency rose to a two-month high of $1.3566,
given a further boost by the release of a stronger-than-expected
German Ifo survey. [ID:nBAE003872] It was last at $1.3540, up
0.5 percent on the day.
Traders said major Asian sovereign accounts were again
active in driving the euro higher, while focus was on a key
technical level at $1.3576, the 50 percent retracement of the
euro's fall from November to January.
"To diminish the risk of an upside break-out towards $1.3700
we would need to see a move below this week's lows around
$1.3240 as well as the 55-week moving average (at $1.3271),"
said Michael Hewson, analyst at CMC Markets.
The euro rose to five-week highs versus around 112.20 yen
<EURJPY=R>, making a technical break above a closely watched
Japanese indicator, the Ichimoku cloud, in the 112 yen area. A
daily close above the cloud would give the euro potential to
rally further.
DOLLAR INDEX NEAR TWO-MONTH LOW
The euro's rally helped to knock the dollar index down 0.4
percent to 78.493 <.DXY>, not far from a two-month low of 78.303
hit on Wednesday, while it slipped 0.3 percent to 82.75 yen
<JPY=>.
A bounce in Chinese equities also helped to support risk
appetite. Shanghai shares rose 1.4 percent <.SSEC>, regaining
some ground after having slid nearly 3 percent the day before as
latest Chinese economic data pointed to further policy
tightening.
The Australian dollar was 0.1 percent lower on the day at
$0.9865 <AUD=D4> after coming under pressure on Thursday when
strong Chinese data renewed worries the world's second biggest
economy could take a tougher stance on fighting inflation this
year, and ultimately slow its demand for commodities.
(Additional reporting by Tokyo forex team, editing by Toby
Chopra)