The UK is educating too many youngsters to degree level and should instead focus on vocational education to prepare them for a burgeoning market in medium and low-skilled jobs, according to researchers.
The study, by the left-leaning Institute for Public Policy Research, shows that the growth in university graduates has far outstripped the number of high-skilled jobs available in Britain, leading to a significant mismatch in the labour market.
During the next 10 years, only a third of all jobs created will be in high-skilled occupations that require a degree, while the rest will be in medium and low-skilled areas such as social care, trades and public services, the researchers found.
These findings cast doubt over government efforts to remove the barriers to university attendance, and abolish a so-called "cap on aspiration". George Osborne, the chancellor, last December announced that he would remove the limit on university places, allowing an extra 60,000 school leavers to attend higher education each year at an eventual annual cost of £2bn.
Analysis published last year by the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills showed that rates of university attendance are already relatively high, with 49 per cent of young people in England entering higher education in the 2011-12 academic year. This is significantly higher than in countries such as Singapore, which prioritise vocational training.
Craig Thorley, IPPR researcher, said UK ministers had wrongly prioritised increasing the number of graduates in the economy in an attempt to win the "global race".
"Winning the race will require more than simply expanding general higher education," Mr Thorley said. "Britain also needs stronger and better-quality vocational education, coupled with new business models that make better use of workforce skills and enable companies to move up the value chain."
The study projects that about 5.6m jobs will be created in low-skilled occupations between 2012 and 2022. Already, a fifth of workers in low-skilled occupations hold a higher education qualification, prompting fears that their skills are not being properly used in the workplace.
The suggestion that youngsters are being over educated raises the prospect that increasing numbers of students are taking out loans they will not be able to afford, at a time when the debt burden on graduates is heavier following the introduction of £9,000 a year tuition fees.
"It appears from the data presented in this paper that the number of high-skilled jobs has not kept pace with the rate at which workers are becoming more highly qualified," the report reads. "Businesses are still creating large numbers of low-skilled jobs in areas such as administration, care and elementary services."
Commenting on the research, Matthew Hancock, skills minister, said the government was reforming vocational qualifications to make sure they were "rigorous and responsive to employers' needs", and to ensure that all students get a "valued qualification".
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