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3G cost-cutters struggle over food sales

"Costs are like [finger]nails; they always need to be cut," is the business mantra of Beto Sicupira, one of the three Brazilian founders of 3G Capital, the private equity firm that aims to merge Kraft Foods into Heinz in a $100bn takeover.

Slicing costs while heavily incentivising employees has been the turnround hallmark of the Brazilian trio - Mr Sicupira, Marcel Telles and founding father Jorge Paulo Lemann - at the nine companies they have acquired over three decades.

Few doubt their ability to apply the same principles to their 10th big deal, in which Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is a partner, as in the acquisition of Heinz two years ago. They have already promised $1.5bn of annual savings at Kraft Heinz, as the new company will be known, from 2017.

What they have been less good at - at least with their food investments - is increasing sales.

Since 3G bought Heinz, total sales have fallen by $600m to $10.9bn in the past year, while revenues were down 4.6 per cent in 2014 compared to the previous year.

At Burger King, bought in 2010, US average volumes are 4 per cent lower than before the acquisition, according to analysts at Bernstein.

Compare this with the huge improvement in profitability at both companies, reflecting the efficiency with which costs have been cut.

At Burger King, operating profit margins have expanded from 13 per cent in 2010 to 54 per cent, boosted also by refranchising company stores.

The operating profit margins at Heinz have also improved sharply, from 15 per cent to 22 per cent in just two years.

As Andrew Lazar, analyst at Barclays, noted: "3G has yet to prove to the investment community that its more extreme brand of margin work can be consistent with a steadily growing top line."

For the time being, investors are likely to give the Brazilian trio the benefit of the doubt, given their record of successful growth in the beer industry.

Anheuser-Busch InBev - the Stella Artois and Budweiser brewer that was formed from the consolidation of beer companies Brahma, Antarctica, InBev and Anheuser Busch - reported organic sales growth in 2014 of 5.9 per cent, giving total revenues of $47.1bn.

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The US packaged food industry has suffered from weak demand from price-conscious consumers. But the food industry is also a more complicated business than beer, with a broader range of product types.

Bernardo Hees, Heinz chief executive, suggested it was only a matter of time before the sales performance at Heinz improves. He said the company has been ridding itself of unprofitable products and had yet to benefit from a pipeline of innovations backed by new marketing initiatives.

These include the rollout of ketchup spiced up with chillies - Heinz released its Jalapeno Chilli ketchup in the UK on Thursday.

Jack Russo, analyst at Edward Jones, said it was too early to judge the results of 3G's deal to merge Burger King with Canadian doughnut chain Tim Horton's, but that the burger chain seemed to be performing well.

"I think there are a lot of questions being asked today [about 3G] - are they financial engineers, are they [restaurant] operators, what are they all about?" he said. The firm has garnered some criticism for its massive cuts at Anheuser-Busch, but the "stock has done really well and the beer industry is one where the top line hasn't really grown".

However, Moody's credit rating agency put Kraft's long-term rating on review for downgrade on Thursday, because of the higher debt that will be taken on through the proposed merger.

"The fact that 3G Capital is pursuing any merger before Heinz has stabilised operationally is, by itself, aggressive," said Brian Weddington, senior credit officer at Moody's. "That the merger will be with the much larger Kraft, which itself has struggled with operating performance, adds to our concerns."

Then there is the question of the logic of scaling up Kraft just three years after it split itself up into two businesses - US grocery, which kept the Kraft name, and international snacks, renamed Mondelez.

The argument at the time of the split was that Kraft was too big to manage effectively. Now teaming up with Heinz's international exposure is "a magical combination," according to John Cahill, chairman and chief executive of Kraft, who argues that "scale works when you operate it well".

David Driscoll, analyst at Citi, said in a note that "in US food, the scale argument never seems to have worked, so we are deeply sceptical, but . . . the 35 per cent gain in Kraft's stock is pretty compelling evidence that investors are confident in the 3G approach".

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